Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Miss Anna - Les Tuileries - paris

hebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur image

      Miss Anna - Editor for NSMBL Magazine - Les Tuileries - Paris
      Suit by Dagmar
      Top by Pinko
      Cap by Marc Jacobs
      Shoes by Plomo
      Photos by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Miss Aurore - Le Marais - Paris

hebergeur image

     Miss Aurore - Journalist - Le Marais - Paris
     Cap by Ted Baker
     Knot belt by Pieces
     Top Vintage
     Bag by Tsumori Chisato
     Shoes by unknown

     Photo by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Miss Elena Perminova - FW - Paris

hebergeur image

     Miss Elena Perminova - FW - Paris
     Photo by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Stylish Lens Serie - FW - Paris

hebergeur image

     Miss Crystal - Stylish Lens Serie - FW - Paris
     Photo by Fred - Easy fashion Paris

Monday, October 29, 2012

Miss Ulyana Sergeenko - Les Tuileries - Paris

hebergeur image

     Miss Ulyana Sergeenko - Les Tuileries - Paris
     Wearing chiffon shirtdress and hand-knitted angora and silk dress by Ulyana Sergeenko
     Photo By Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Miss Elena Perminova - FW - Paris

hebergeur image

      Elena Perminova - FW - Paris
      Photo By Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Total Black Look - FW - Paris

hebergeur image

     Total Black Look - FW - Paris
     Photo By Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Clients' Family Room & Dining Room; "Before" & 2 years "after"

A couple of years ago, I met Aimee & Dave and wrote about their design plans & project here.  With life being so busy for me (& them! :) I never ended up taking pictures of their finished space.  It's always been one of my favorites because they were willing to take some BIG design risks!!!  We finally got together & I snapped a few quick pics to share.  We started working together when the home was still under construction & looked like this:

 
Now, a couple years later & lived in and loved, it looks like this:
 
 
 
The orange floral sofa was thought about - long & hard- by all of us.  It was a really bold move by Aimee & she is still totally loving it so I am so glad she took the risk!!!  Walking into the room with this sofa in it made me smile instantly.  It's soooo much fun and just so pretty in person. 
 
You might remember the design plans & the VERY rough skectches I made, helping Aimee & Dave visualize what their space would feel like:
 
 
This is how the actual space looks now:
 
 
They've kept the center of the plan fairly open for the kids to spread out & play on the floor.  We still have plans to swap out the sunburst mirror with an Audobon print and move it to the bedroom.
 
Here's a close-up of the super-comfy velvet chairs with a peek into the dining nook in the kitchen:
 
 
I didn't get a good pic of the 19th Century barley twist table with original needlepoint insets that I'd found for them but here's an old photo I took of it before it went in.  THIS THING IS INCREDIBLE:
 
 
It sits between the two velvet chairs.
 
 
I love the lamp by Haeger Potteries atop the media cabinet:
 
 
 
And then here's the kitchen dining nook when it was under construction: (hey! looks like how we're living at our place right now!! ;) ;)
 
 
And here it is now, truly being used:
 
 
 
The custom parsons dining table is by The Lorimer Workshop in Rhose Island.  (They're amazing.)  I loooooove the kids artwork collection simply taped to the wall!!  (You may have noticed a few other artwork walls in the other shots too ;)  They can add the collections whenever they want. 
 
And finally, here's one last pic of the family room with Aimee & Dave in it.  (They are STILL the cutest!! :)
 
 
I'm so thankful to have such wonderful clients like them who have let me into their homes & lives!!
 


If you'd like help creating a home you absolutely love, contact me about our design services.

Miss Barbara Von Enger - FW - Paris

hebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur image

     The Incredible Barbara Von Enger - Art Advisor-Creative Director - FW - Paris
     Atelier Haldenwang
     Vintage Coat by JP Gaultier
     HandMade shoes
     Vintage sunnies by Chanel
     Vintage Necklace (20')

Crocodile Sunnies - Opéra - Paris

hebergeur image

    Crocodile Sunnies - Opéra - Paris
    Photo by Fred - easy fashion Paris

Miss Elena et Miss Miroslava - FW - Paris

hebergeur image
     Elena et Miroslava - FW - Paris
     Photo by Farid - Easy Fashion Paris

Miss Anne-Catherine et Miss Peony Lim - FW - Paris

hebergeur image
     Anne-Catherine et Peony Lim - FW - Paris
     Photo by Farid - Easy Fashion Paris

Friday, October 26, 2012

Miss Carla et Miss Emma - Rue Fg St-Honoré - Paris

hebergeur image

    Carla et Emma - Fg St-Honoré - Paris
    Photo by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Miss Carole - Opéra - Paris

hebergeur imagehebergeur image

   Carole - Blogger - Opéra - Paris
   Photos by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Romuald - Rue de Turenne - Paris

hebergeur image

   Romuald - Student - Rue de Turenne - Paris
   All outfit vintage
   Photo by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Miss Haruka - Rue de Turenne - Paris

hebergeur image
   Miss Haruka - Rue de Turenne - Paris
   Coat by Prada
   Dress and tights by Vivienne Westwood
   Shoes by Repetto
   Bag by Chanel
   Photo by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Miss Zeinab - Rue de Turenne - Paris

hebergeur image
  Zeinab - Fashion Journalist - Rue de Turenne - Paris
  Photo by Fred - Easy Fashion Paris

Food Reward Fridays

Each Friday, I'm going to post a picture of a modern food so ridiculous it makes you want to laugh and cry at the same time.  I'm doing this for two reasons:
  1. To raise awareness about the unhealthy, fattening foods that are taking over global food culture.  These are highly rewarding, highly palatable, energy-dense foods that drive people to eat in the absence of hunger, and continue eating beyond calorie needs.  In many cases, the foods have been specifically designed to maximize "craveability" and palatability.
  2. Because it's funny.
Without further ado... the first lucky winner:
Read more »

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Blue is the new Blue - FW - Paris

hebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur imagehebergeur image

   Blue is the new Blue - FW - Paris
   In Special Guest Star       Inès de la Fressange
   All pics by Farid - Easy Fashion Paris

A Client's Home Office Before & After

Since having Luke (our 5 month old) and unexpectedly selling our house & moving to a new one a couple of months ago, I've felt like time has truly been passing at the speed of light.  It's been a whirlwind.  I don't think life ever really slows down but I think it might calm a little once our house is through construction.     Since being in such a busy phase, I haven't had the chance to take many photos of finished projects to share...
 
Before Luke was born, I began working with a client who occasionally works from home and wanted to have her office redesigned.  The project was installed when I was around 9 months pregnant & when I was able to visit afterwards, I had my brand new baby with me so there wasn't time to take pictures.  I received the sweetest thank you card in the mail from her last week that she'd made from photos of the office & I just had to share! 
 
Here's what the loft office looked like when we started:
 
 
My client has very defined tastes and she's a minimalist.  I think she's also the neatest person I've EVER known.  (I'm seriously envious of how perfectly she keeps her home/ office.)  She likes her spaces to feel clean & open & airy & natural and loves a warm modern feeling.  We decided to reuphoster a pair of her existing chairs & to change out pretty much everything else. 
 
Here's what it looks like now:
 

We used a glass table between her reupholstered chairs so that the view from the new daybed to the living room below would be unimpeded.  To make the daybed exactly as my client wanted it, she & her (SUPER-handy!!) husband actually cut down the legs of the daybed for a lower/less traditonal vibe and painted the feet.  We used some of my fern star linen for throw pillows on it. 


We used a lot of glass & metal throughout the space but the live edge desk is one of my favorite pieces in the room.  We had it made by the Lorimer Workshop. It's a live edge top on metal legs.  I love it juxtaposed against the white leather & chrome chair.


I'm off for an installation (so be sure to check out instagram where I'll be posting photos of the project) but hope you enjoyed & thank you so much to my client for sending me the photos!!




If you'd like help creating a home you absolutely love, contact me about our design services.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Fern Star Baby

This weekend was amazing in that nothing really happened at all.  We veg'd at home and enjoyed being outside & having a grill to cook with.  (We sold our house with the grill since we'd built a countertop around it & it fit perfectly so we have been eating TERRIBLY since we moved to our new house without a kitchen.)  I cannot describe how HEAVENLY it feels to eat good food again.  (Even if the "good food" consists of grilled meat with microwave rice.)

 
When I was little, my mom used to lay a blanket out in the yard for us and now it's one of my favorite things to do with my little guys.  I couldn't resist putting Luke's head in the center of one of the fern stars on the quilt and taking some pics.   It's definitely the little things & it's in the moments where I'm thinking of nothing else but that moment that I feel the most connected to & invigorated by life.
 
Hope you had a good one! 



If you'd like help creating a home you absolutely love, contact me about our design services.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

More detail on the MID and House Prices (long and wonky)


Capozza, Hendershott and Green (1997) developed a model of determining whether federal tax policy would be capitalized into house prices.  The foundation for their analysis was an estimating of the user cost model of housing.  In the user cost model, in equilibrium, the costs of owning and renting the same house must be the same.  This means that:

Rent = Value*(after tax cost of capital + property tax rate + maintenance rate – expected house price growth).

After tax cost of capital is a blend of return on equity and the cost of debt, taking into account tax preferences.  The equity return to homeowner is imputed rent (i.e., the rent the homeowner pays herself).  Because imputed rent is not taxed, it receives a tax preference.  The return to debt—mortgage interest—also receives a tax preference in the tax code, at least for homeowners who itemize their deductions (only about half of homeowners are itemizers).

The effective property tax rate facing owners is the ad valorem rate less the tax preference.  Expected house price growth and maintenance are difficult to observe, but we will model them using a method described below.

We may rewrite the equation above to produce the foundation for an estimating equation:

Rent/Price = R*(1-ty)+PT*(1-ty)+M-π.

We estimate

R/P = α + β1*R*(1-ty) + β2*)T(1-ty) + MSAi + T + ε

Where R/P is the rent to price ratio, the α soaks up maintenance costs, R is an interest rate, ty is the marginal tax rate for those taking the mortage interest deduction, PT is the ad valorem property tax rate, MSAi are MSA fixed effects, which proxies for price expectations, T is a time fixed effect, and ε is a residual.

When Capozza, Green and Hendershott estimated an equation similar to (X), they found B1 and B2 were not statistically different from one, which is the prediction of the model.  From this, they concluded that taxes do get capitalized into house prices, and ran simulations based on that conclusion.

The most recent data available in CGH was the 1990 census.  The American Community Survey will allow us to do a much more timely estimate.

Data

We use the most recent-five year American Community Survey to find mean rents and mean house prices for 255 metropolitan areas in the United States.  The smallest sample we have among these MSAs is 1912 observations over five years, so we have sufficiently large samples to draw inferences about mean values and prices.

For the before tax cost of capital, we use the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed interest rate series.  For average marginal tax rates by state, we use the results produced by the NBER TAXSIM web site, which gives the average marginal rate of those who use the mortgage interest deduction and the average marginal rate of those who use the property tax deduction.  NBER TAXSIM gives estimates by state and by year; for those MSAs in more than one state, we take the population weighted average of the TAXSIM rates.

It is worth spending a little time discussing the TAXSIM data.  It contains a number of surprising, including the fact that the average total state and federal marginal tax rate for California among those taking the deduction was only slightly higher than for Texas.  This is surprising because (1) California has a state marginal top tax bracket of xx percent, while Texas has no state income taxes and (2) nominal incomes in California are on average higher than in Texas.

I conferred with Dan Feenberg, who runs the NBER model, to make sure I was interpreting the data correctly, and be confirmed that I was.  The following might explain why we see the peculiar data phenomenon.

California relied very heavily on subprime lending, while Texas, owing to its heavily regulated mortgage market, did not.  Subprime lenders specifically targeted minority borrower and lower income borrowers—they also originated loans for borrowers who self reported their incomes.  Because California has a high state income tax, and because mortgages were large, borrowers in low tax Federal brackets in California had an incentive to itemize; those in Texas did not.   

As we shall see below, we have difficulty finding a relationship between the after tax cost of capital and house prices.  We present our regression results below.

Regressions

We begin by presenting rent-to-price ratios.  

We will show four sets of regressions: simple linear regressions with year fixed effects that are both population weighted and non-population weighted; linear regressions for each year individually, and panel regressions.  Let us begin with a set of “base” regressions, where the rent-to-value ratio is explained by the after tax cost of capital (atcc1) and the “after-tax” property tax rate (ptrate1). 

Specifications (1) and (3) include dummy variables for years; (1) and (2) treats each MSA as an equal observation, while (3) and (4) weight MSAs by population.


(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

Unweighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Weighted
atcc1
-0.190***
0.266
-0.226***
1.191***

(-3.60)
(1.30)
(-4.12)
(4.73)





ptrate1
0.965***
0.954***
1.018***
0.985***

(13.75)
(13.58)
(13.0)
(12.7)





y1

-0.00584*

-0.0195***


(-2.02)

(-5.59)





y2

-0.00708*

-0.0196***


(-2.53)

(-5.79)





y3

-0.00636**

-0.0161***


(-2.68)

(-5.66)





y4

-0.00227*

-0.00500***


(-1.99)

(-4.06)





_cons
0.0488***
0.0325***
0.0430***
-0.00917

(19.02)
(4.21)
(15.7)
(-0.97)
N
1275
1275
1275
1275
t statistics in parentheses
·      p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

In equilibrium, the signs on both coefficients should be positive, and the magnitude of the coefficient should be one.  The property tax coefficient works quite nicely across all four specifications—it is statistically different from zero at the 99.9 percent level of confidence, and is quite close to zero.  The coefficients on after-tax cost of capital are another matter, however.  They are in two instances negative, and in one instance not different from zero.  The predicted result only occurs in specification (4).  While one might argue that this is the best specification, it also would amount to cherry picking to rely on it when the three others are so different.  It is thus worth investigating other regression techniques.

We next turn to panel techniques, where we allow the intercept of the regression to vary with MSA; this could reflect differences in expectations about house prices from one MSA to the next.  Now our after tax cost of capital is either not different from zero, or has the wrong sign.  Interestingly, property taxes now become even more important, and their magnitude is too large—it suggests full capitalization and then some.  This also does not comport with economic theory.



(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
atcc1
-0.0618**
0.143
-0.144***
0.128

(-3.07)
(1.25)
(-7.48)
(1.09)





ptrate
2.632***
2.713***
1.720***
1.782***

(21.14)
(22.30)
(18.54)
(19.33)





y1

-0.00191

-0.00290


(-1.23)

(-1.83)





y2

-0.00326*

-0.00422**


(-2.17)

(-2.75)





y3

-0.00361**

-0.00418**


(-2.88)

(-3.26)





y4

-0.00128**

-0.00151**


(-2.77)

(-3.17)





_cons
0.0227***
0.0145**
0.0366***
0.0260***

(11.10)
(3.17)
(20.95)
(5.67)
N
1275
1275
1275
1275
t statistics in parentheses
* p < 0.05, ** p< 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Finally, we run regressions separately for each year (both weighted and unweighted). 



Unweighted


(2006)
(2007)
(2008)
(2009)
(2010)

rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
atcc1
-0.319
-0.992*
0.951
2.090***
1.529*

(-0.87)
(-2.20)
(1.91)
(4.18)
(2.42)






ptrate1
1.322***
1.288***
1.006***
0.679***
0.590***

(7.61)
(7.95)
(6.62)
(4.87)
(4.02)






_cons
0.0532**
0.0859***
-0.00737
-0.0415*
-0.0113

(2.85)
(3.83)
(-0.31)
(-2.03)
(-0.48)
N
255
255
255
255
255
t statistics in parentheses
* p < 0.05, ** p< 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Weighted by Population


(2006)
(2007)
(2008)
(2009)
(2010)

rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
rvratio1
atcc1
0.355
-0.967
2.045***
4.137***
4.145***

(0.81)
(-1.79)
(3.34)
(6.70)
(5.38)






ptrate1
1.423***
1.343***
0.998***
0.643***
0.604***

(7.62)
(7.76)
(5.88)
(4.11)
(3.80)






_cons
0.00997
0.0769**
-0.0666*
-0.131***
-0.116***

(0.45)
(2.84)
(-2.25)
(-5.18)
(-4.01)
N
255
255
255
255
255
t statistics in parentheses
* p < 0.05, ** p< 0.01, *** p < 0.001


To say the coefficient on the after tax cost of capital are unstable is an understatement.  The series of regressions listed above suggest that we cannot currently reliably estimate the impact of changing the tax treatment of mortgage interest on house prices.